the ARCHIVE

inflections from the past

TSLA - A Narrative Shift Inflection

October 24, 2024

The 3-year downtrend in Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is over.

A confluence of updates from last night's Q3 Report has positioned Tesla to emerge into a new market leader into year-end, including:

  • Estimates have bottomed. Tesla will now see positive estimate revisions, along with enhanced PT revisions in the coming months.
  • The company's long-term moat relative to competition has advanced sharply. For the first time, investors can now model out mass adoption of $25K price point cars. This is huge. This will spur the adoption of EVs like we have never seen before.
  • The company is also getting closer to autonomous driving becoming a reality. This is where the narrative shift is taking place. While we do not believe the company will actually be successful in rolling out to CA and Texas next year, with odds slightly tilting in Trump's favor for an election win, in this scenario, the multiple on Tesla will go into overdrive.
  • In a Trump administration, Musk would be tasked with streamlining the regulations needed to get autonomous capabilities happening much more quickly than it will ever happen in a Harris administration. IF Trump were to win, Tesla would be quickly re-rate dramatically, as the A.I. part of the story would then go into huge hype overdrive.
  • Importantly, all of this is happening in real time. And, for that matter, WITHOUT any expectations for their Robot A.I. Assistants to become part of the Tesla bullish slant.

This is why the stock is poised to break out. 

Encouragingly, even if Harris wins, we do not see much risk in owning Tesla here, as the stock should be busting to new highs in the coming days. Under a Harris administration, we would see EV adoption accelerate, so while we would not get the huge J-Curve in the valuation re-rate we should see with a Trump win, TSLA will do very well, fundamentally, after any initial sell-off.

You can see the bullish set up on the chart. We are getting long a very large Top 3 allocation into the close and plan to add on any dips to today's VWAP near $253.

STOP LOSS:  As for a Stop, we will use $240, about 5% down.

As for our long-term price objective, the Measured Move on the Head n Shoulders pattern outlined below, gets us to the $380 price level.

TSLA 3-YEAR WEEKLY

Source: Schwab.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclosure:   We are long TSLA, the levered ETF, TSLL and Jan and Nov calls. We may change our positioning at a moment’s notice, without notifying you of any such moves.

Disclaimer:  All of the information in this piece has been prepped by Inflections Consulting LLC. Readers should know that it would be incorrect to assume that past and future names of interest will be profitable or will not turn into a loss. Inflections Consulting LLC does not and will not assume any liability for any loss that could occur if you invested in such stocks written about.

All the content in these reports have been prepared by Inflections Consulting LLC. We believe our sources to be reliable, but there is no guarantee here. The information in this piece does not constitute either an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities name-dropped in this piece.

All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of Top Tier Inflections members/subscribers, only. Absolutely none of our content may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission from Inflections Consulting LLC. All rights reserved.

In no shape or manner should the views expressed in this piece be considered investment advice. We reserve the right to change our positioning in our TSLA stock, ETF, and options positions at a moment’s notice without updating you on any such change in opinion and positioning. That may be tomorrow, even before our price target is hit. Facts change, our opinions can change quickly too.

Investors need to consider their investment risk tolerance before investing in the stock market and also before investing in any of the stocks mentioned in this report.