We are once again taking a position in Oscar Health Inc. (OSCR) after being previously Stopped Out on February 23, 2024.
While OSCR announced a huge upside-surprise for 2024, the stock had already tripled in price into its Q4 Report. Though the stock remained attractive in the high-teens it needed to consolidate its gains before its next leg higher could commence.
At its current price, there is a wonderful asymmetric set up to re engage with OSCR. We see $2.00 downside vs $5-$7.00 of multi-month upside. Longer term, OSCR has the potential to return to and through its IPO levels ($37) IF certain upside levers materialize. Let’s take a look:
In our Feb 9, initial deep-dive, we pointed out that Oscar CEO, Mark Bertolini, is world class – the former CEO of Aetna. There is serious health-care acumen at the helm here as well as major ego that does NOT wish to be bruised. Bertolini wants OSCR back above IPO levels. This is his swan song and he still has some PSUs at much higher levels.
There are also two big catalysts ahead:
The Investor Day will occur AFTER the Q1 Report (early May). If Adj EBITDA inflects as strongly as we anticipate, a move to $25 is possible. Remember, Bertolini still has PSUs at $39!
We are scaling into half our position now and will round out our stake on OSCR’s close above the 50-day SMA.
STOP LOSS: We will use $13 as our stop on our entire position.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: We long OSCR stock. We may change our positioning at a moment’s notice, without notifying you of any such moves.
Disclaimer: All of the information in this piece has been prepped by Inflections Consulting LLC. Readers should know that it would be incorrect to assume that past and future names of interest will be profitable or will not turn into a loss. Inflections Consulting LLC does not and will not assume any liability for any loss that could occur if you invested in such stocks written about.
All the content in these reports have been prepared by Inflections Consulting LLC. We believe our sources to be reliable, but there is no guarantee here. The information in this piece does not constitute either an offer or a solicitation, to buy or sell any of the securities discussed in this piece.
All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of Top Tier Inflections members/subscribers, only. Absolutely none of our content may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission from Inflections Consulting LLC. All rights reserved.
In no shape or manner should the views expressed in this piece be considered investment advice. We reserve the right to change our positioning in our OSCR stock and options positions at a moment’s notice without updating you on any such change in opinion and positioning. That may be tomorrow, even before our price target is hit. Facts change, our opinions can change quickly too.
Investors need to consider their investment risk tolerance before investing in the stock market and also before investing in any of the stocks mentioned in this report.
