I like AFRM the best tonight. Its revenue beat was ~7% above consensus, even better than last quarter’s 5% beat above estimates. Affirm crossed into GAAP profitability. Revenues accelerated to almost 47% year-over-year growth too. GAAP EPS Beat by $0.40. Powerful leverage in its model.
Modeling out $1.50 in EPS for Fiscal 2026 is viable, along with $4.4B in revenues – both well above consensus. It's not egregiously expensive based off of the forward numbers. I therefore think AFRM can do a PLTR and follow through in this tape.
I am looking for AFRM to head to $77-$80 over the next few weeks.
DOCS had a very impressive beat and raise.
The company offers a cloud platform for doctors and medical professionals that is gaining traction with every quarter. DOCS is super expensive, however, trading for 15x forward sales. Yet, the company is also highly profitable and has a great business that will be $1B in revenue 2-3 years out.
All in all, DOCS is too expensive even for me. I plan to sell into any move to the mid-to-high-$70s
Expedia saw a nice acceleration in its bookings growth rate from 8% two quarters ago to 13% this quarter and its revenues beat by $110M and EPS by 15%.
I think EXPE will also bring dividend investors back into the stock with the reinstatement of its quarterly dividend of $0.40, starting in March’25. Looks like $14-$15 in EPS this year is possible.
I think EXPE is a buy in premarket. I expect it to grind its way up to $200-$220 in the coming days and weeks, maybe a month or two.
I am long size in AFRM around $70.50. EXPE and DOCS are a third of the size, relative to AFRM.
So for in 2025, successful breakouts like PLTR have been few and far between and inconsistent. Take EAT, which stalled hard on Thursday.
Selectivity continues to be paramount in this tape.
For the foreseeable future, less swing trading and selective investing in longer-term Top Tier Inflections seems to be the best recipe for success due to all the uncertainty out of DC.
Will leave it there. Good trading!
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Disclosure: We are long AFRM, DOCS, EXPE stock. We may change our positioning at a moment’s notice, without notifying you of any such moves.
Disclaimer: All of the information in this piece has been prepped by Inflections Consulting LLC. Readers should know that it would be incorrect to assume that past and future names of interest will be profitable or will not turn into a loss. Inflections Consulting LLC does not and will not assume any liability for any loss that could occur if you invested in such stocks written about.
All the content in these reports have been prepared by Inflections Consulting LLC. We believe our sources to be reliable, but there is no guarantee here. The information in this piece does not constitute either an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities name-dropped in this piece.
All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of Top Tier Inflections members/subscribers, only. Absolutely none of our content may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission from Inflections Consulting LLC. All rights reserved.
In no shape or manner should the views expressed in this piece be considered investment advice. We reserve the right to change our positioning in our AFRM, DOCS, EXPE stock positions at a moment’s notice without updating you on any such change in opinion and positioning. That may be tomorrow, even before our price target is hit. Facts change, our opinions can change quickly too.
Investors need to consider their investment risk tolerance before investing in the stock market and also before investing in any of the stocks mentioned in this report.
